The BJP-led NDA is likely to finish within sniffing difference of a majority in the Lok Sabha, winning 252 seats, while the Congress-led UPA could fall well short with 146 MPs and parties not aligned to either of these fronts would win 145, a Times Now pre-election opinion poll has predicted.
Among the non-aligned parties, the SP-BSP combine was projected to get 51 seats, Trinamool Congress 32, and Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRC 23 seats.
However, if the NDA finishes just 20 short of the majority mark, none of them may get to play kingmaker with smaller parties having enough between them for the BJP to be able to play hardball with these regional biggies
In 2014, the NDA had won 336 seats and the UPA just 60. The predicted result would thus mean an increase of 86 seats for the UPA and a corresponding fall of 84 for the NDA, but given the huge gap between the two five years ago, that would still be too little for the Congress-led alliance.
The Times Now-VMR poll predicted that the NDA would more or less retain its 2014 vote share (38.7% now compared with 38.2% five years ago) but the UPA’s share could rise sharply from 24.4% to 32.6%. The NDA’s biggest losses compared with 2014 could come from Uttar Pradesh (see graphic), where its tally is slated to fall from 73 to 27.
Courtesy: The Times of India