Skymet Weather had predicted that Southwest Monsoon 2019 would make onset over Kerala on June 4 (with an error margin of +/- 2 days). However, looking at the sluggish advancement of Monsoon, we expect that country would have to wait for some more days.
Present weather conditions are indicating Monsoon onset would be now around June 7 (with an error margin of +/- 2 days). “Dynamics of Monsoon keep changing. So far, not even one out of the three criteria needed for declaring the onset of Monsoon has been met. In fact, it would take some more days for conditions to become favourable for the same,” said AVM G P Sharma, President- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.
Monsoon 2019 had made an appearance over Bay Islands on May 18, little early than its normal onset date of May 20. However, the progress of Monsoon has remained extremely sluggish thereafter or we can say practically stationary.
By May 27, Monsoon surge had covered some more parts of Andaman and Nicobar Islands and by May 30, it covered significant portion of Bay of Bengal and Islands including Port Blair. Usually, by May 25, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) covers both Port Blair as well as Sri Lanka.
Know the reasons behind the delay in Monsoon onset:
Weathermen at Skymet Weather are of the view that slowly and gradually, weather conditions would change. All the roadblocks in the journey of Southwest Monsoon are likely to dissipate in the coming 48 hours. However, arrival of the Monsoon would not be sudden as establishment of favourable weather conditions would take some more days.
A vortex is expected to come up in Southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep Islands around June 6. The system would be responsible for the onset of Monsoon over Kerala.
However, as reiterated, Skymet Weather do not expect a thumping beginning to the Monsoon 2019. It would be a weak onset as weather system does not promise sufficient rains. In fact, the Monsoon might go silent soon after making onset.
“The likely weather system would be moving away from the coast in westerly direction. It would be gaining strength gradually. As a result, moist winds would then be concentrating around the weather system, leading to drop in rainfall over the Indian landmass. Rains would only return as the system moves far away,” said G P Sharma.
Criteria needed for onset of Monsoon are:
News Credit: Skymetweather, Image Credit: Indian Express