Although conditions are becoming favorable for the advancement of Southwest Monsoon over which can now reach Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, it will still take few more days to cover entire Nepal. These on and off rains are likely to continue for the next three to four days.
According to Metrological Forecasting Division, there will be generally cloudy in the eastern and western regions and partly to generally cloudy in the central region. There will be brief rain/ thundershowers likely to occur at some places of the eastern and western regions and at a few places of the central region.
Sky weather reports about the weather pattern in India.
So far, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) has covered significant parts of Bay of Bengal. Thus, wind pattern over the region has also changed. It has been raining profusely over Northeast India for last many days.
Meteorologists are of the view that prevailing weather pattern is that of typical Monsoon rains. Winds are already turning easterlies. In fact, a well-marked trough is seen running from West Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal. Besides this, there is a cyclonic circulation prevailing over Bangladesh for last many days. Both are the prominent features of the Monsoon.
“Monsoon covers Northeast simultaneously, but we are stuck with the fact that the surge first has to cover Kerala. Back in 2011, Monsoon had covered Kerala and South Andaman Sea simultaneously on May 29, even when it reaches Andaman Sea first. Hence, we can say that exceptions are there. To us, it looks like that Monsoon has already covered Bay and same air mass is reaching entire Northeast India. All the criteria of temperatures, humidity and rainfall are meeting,” said G P Sharma, President- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.
However, as per the standards for declaring the onset of Monsoon, it must fulfill the criteria of winds, OLR (Outgoing Longwave radiation) and rainfall over Kerala.
Back in Central India, south-westerly winds are merging along with northerly winds over Odisha and its adjoining areas. Also, a Trough is extending from Northeast India up to coastal Odisha. These combined activities are likely to enhance rainfall activity in the state of Odisha for the next three to four days.
So, we expect Monsoon to cover parts of Odisha particularly South coastal Odisha in the next 24 to 48 hours.
The progress of Southwest Monsoon 2019 is still sluggish. In fact, we can say it is has remained almost stagnant, since June 11.
Usually, by this time, Monsoon covers South Gujarat, entire state of Maharashtra, parts of South Madhya Pradesh, half of Chhattisgarh, almost entire Odisha, Northeast India, West Bengal and some parts of Bihar and Jharkhand. However, due to its slow progress, it has not yet entirely covered Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Moreover, in Northeast India, Monsoon has been able to make it only up to Mizoram so far.
However, with the probability of intense rains, we expect Monsoon to extend its spread and cover over entire Kerala, most parts of coastal Karnataka as well as over some parts of Konkan and Goa, during the next 24 to 48 hours. Meanwhile, Monsoon is expected to cover some more parts of Northeast India.
Updated on June 10, 2019: Monsoon 2019 Forecast: Cyclone Vayu likely soon, heavy rains in Coastal Karnataka, Goa, Kerala.
The well-marked low pressure area in Southeast and East-Central Arabian Sea has now induced a depression over the same region. The system is tracking north-northwest, parallel to the West Coast. The system is presently centered at Latitude 11.7 °N and Longitude 71°E, around 200 km west-northwest of Amini Divi, 820 km south-southwest of Mumbai, and 1010 km south-southwest of Veraval.
The system is likely to intensify into deep depression by Monday evening and subsequently into a cyclonic storm Vayu in another 24 to 48 hours.
The depression has already given very heavy to extremely heavy rains over Kerala, with Alappuzha recorded 106 mm of rain in span of 24 hours from 8:30 am on Sunday, Kottayam 92 mm, Kochi 91 mm, Thiruvananthapuram 58 mm, and Kanyakumari 36 mm.
Now as the system moves up, the heavy rain belt would also shift northwards. During the next 24 hours, heavy to very heavy rains area likely over Coastal Karnataka and Goa. In the subsequent 24 hours, rain belt would cover Konkan coast including Mumbai as well.
Rain in Kerala would continue but on reducing note as the probable Cyclone Vayu would drive away all the moisture.
Southwest Monsoon 2019 remained active over Kerala and Lakshadweep Islands and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the last 24 hours, giving moderate moderate to heavy Monsoon rains.
In span of 24 hours from 8:30 am on Saturday, Alappuzha recorded 66 mm of rains , followed by Thiruvananthapuram 32 mm, Vaikom 24 mm, Kochi 23 mm, Munnar 22 mm, and Punalur 12 mm.
According to Skymet Weather, moderate to heavy Monsoon rains would continue over Kerala during the next 24 hours and reducing thereafter.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Latitude 11°N/Longitude 60°E, Latitude 11°N/Longitude 70°E, Amini Divi, Kochi, Madurai, Latitude 11°N/Longitude 86°E, Latitude 16°N/Longitude 91°E and Latitude 20°N/Longitude 94°E.
Weather conditions remain conducive for further progress of Southwest Monsoon into parts of Northeast India during the next 24 hours. In fact, it would also reach into the remaining parts of South Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area and Kerala, some more parts of Tamil Nadu, southwest, southeast, eastcentral & northeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of central Arabian Sea and west-central Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours.