Decadal Experience In Preparing The NDC

Decadal Experience In Preparing The NDC

March 3, 2025, 10:57 a.m. Published in Magazine Issue: VOL. 18, No. 15,March.07, 2025 (Falgun-23. 2081) Publisher and Editor: Keshab Prasad Poudel Online Register Number: DOI 584/074-75

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)urge sits developed country Parties to limit their anthropogenic GHGs emissions, protect and enhance GHG sinks and reservoirs, provide new and additional financial resources to developing countries, and assist the climate vulnerable country Parties to meet their adaptation costs. The Convention clarifies the responsibilities of the developed and developing country Parties. The Convention provisions for providing funding and technologies to LDCs. For over two decades (1992-2015), GHGs emission reduction was considered the responsibility of the developed countries,and they should provide funding and technologies to the developing countries for climate actions.The share of GHGs emissions changed over the years with substantial emissions from developing countries as well.

In December 2011, Parties to the UNFCCC at its 17thsession of the Conference of the Parties (CoP 17)decided to establish an Ad-hoc Working Group on 'Durban Platform for Enhanced Action' to develop a new international agreement, in the form of a "protocol, another legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force," by 2015. The 2015 outcome would apply to all countries.

Parties decided to initiate additional climate actions to fight against the adverse impacts of climate change. This was further reflected at CoP 19 decisions, held at Warsaw in 2013, which invited to intensify and share domestic preparations through the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs). The CoP 19 agreed to communicate targeted contributions with strong climate action swell in advance of COP21. In 2013, it was understood that INDC should focus on ambitious mitigation actions to reduce GHGs emissions, and it would not add extra burden to the LDCs. In the fall of 2015, some LDCs submitted their INDCs with emphasis on adaptation priorities, also taking note of SDG 13, adopted in September 2015, that calls to 'take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts'.

The INDCs are non-binding, initial, and voluntary pledges of countries, but NDCs are 'commitment' but still non-legally binding and include 'conditional' targets.The NDCs are countries' self-defined mitigation goals. As GHGs emissions from 45 LDCsare less than 4 percent of the total global emissions, high commitments (of LDCs) to GHGs reduction would have no significance globally.

Article 4.2 of the Paris Agreement provisions that 'each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successiveNDCs that it intends to achieve', and 'pursue domestic mitigation measures'. Article 4.9 provisions to communicate an NDC every 5 years to the UNFCCC secretariat which maintains the NDC registry. The Paris Agreement also provisions for organising the global stock take(GST) every five years to assess the collective progress towards achieving its goals. The first GST was organised in 2023 (CoP 28) at Dubai. GST1 informed that progress on climate actions isinsufficient, and the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. GST1 called for, inter alia, scaling-up renewable energy to limit temperature increase to 1.50Cabove pre-industrial levels.

To scale up mitigation actions, Parties were invited to submit the INDCs in 2015, NDCs during the ratification of the Paris Agreement, and successive NDCs every 5 years. Although, C of the NDCstands for Contribution. It is now considered the country Commitment to pledge and implement ambitious climate actions. Countries should Comply with their contributions.

Regarding NDC preparations in Nepal, the Climate Analytics prepared an INDC for Nepal in October 2014 to brief the LDC chair (Nepal was the Chair of the LDC Group for 2013 and 2014) andadvised to submit its 'INDC well in advance of CoP 21 in Paris, demonstrating real leadership for climate action'.

Nepal submitted its adaptation-focussed INDC in February 2016, noting Nepal's GHGs emission only 0.027 percent of the total global emissions, and 'requiring huge investments in adapting and building resilience to climate change in order to protect its people, property and natural resources'.Under the leadership of then climate change focal point - the Ministry of Population and Environment, about 5 persons voluntarily contributed to drafting the INDC. A 'youth' British girl of Nepali origin edited it.The NDC submitted in October 2016 along with the instruments of ratification to the Paris Agreement included additional target on GHGs emission reduction such as through REDD+.It means, the government mobilised voluntary support to prepare and finalise both INDC and NDC in 2016.

Nepal submitted her mitigation-focussed ambitious second NDC in December 2020 with clear targets on energy, transport, forestry and agriculture, and waste for 2025 and 2030. The NDC2 included policy targets on tourism, urban settlements and GESI to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change. It also included policy priorities to formulate and implement LAPAs - 'Nepal's brand' to localise adaptation actions - in all 753 local levels, conduct climate vulnerability and risk assessment every 5 years to inform climate resource allocation policies, formulate GESI and Climate Change Strategy and Action plan by 2021 and so on. Nepal's NDC2 includes number of conditional targetsand few unconditional targets such as generation of 5,000 MW electricity by 2030. Nepal estimated US$ 25 billion to achieve the conditional targets and US$ 3.4 billion for unconditional targets. Nepal adopted a consultative process and mobilised expert services to formulate the format-based NDC2.

Nepal prepared 3NDCs as of now - INDC, NDC and NDC2. Some activities of NDC1 were implemented. Renaming of the Ministry of Forests and Environment and COVID-19 might have affected its implementation. In case of NDC2, Nepal has achieved forestry targets of maintaining 45 percent of the total area under forest cover by 2030. It is predicted that targets defined for 2025 such as on sale of e-vehicles, installation of improved cookstoves, household and large-scale biogas plants, and treatment of wastewater may not be achieved. Nepal may expedite the implementation to achieve targets during the remaining 5 years by securing funding for 'conditional' targets.However, NDC2and Nepal's commitment to net-zero emission by 2045 has generated high level of awareness on the urgency of climate actions at the policy, decision-making and political levels.

In the last week of December 2024, the UNFCCC focal point - the Ministry of Forests and Environment (MoFE) - started preparation of the third NDC through extensive consultative process with support from a technical team and partner organisations. During the last two months, theme-based multi-stakeholder consultations provided a basis to draft the NDC3 with revised targets for 2030 and additional targets for 2035 by following the ICTU (Information to facilitateClarity, Transparency and Understanding of NDC) guideline. The NDC3 plans to, inter alia, increase ambition, add potential sectors, focus on quantified targets for GHG reduction, enhance ownership, including policy targets on adaptation, GEDSI, just transition, climate finance, Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and loss and damage.

NDC 3.0 Workshop, 22-24 December 2024, Nagarkot

Recalling the implementation of the ambitious targets of the NDC2in the last 5 years, efforts to secure resources for 'conditional' targets, sector priorities in new policies, engagement of dedicated institutions in securing resources and availability of funding for NDC2 implementation, country's specific needs and special financial situation, and taking note of possible difficulty in accessing additional funding due to recent decision to put Nepal under the 'grey list' by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in February 2025 in Paris, Nepal may wish to set realistic and achievable targets in NDC3. Based on estimated emissions in 2022 (from energy sector), Nepal's emission from energy sector is only 0.051 percent of the total global GHGs emission. Hence, NDC3 may focus in setting achievable unconditional mitigation targets with few conditional targets that effectively contribute to GHGs emission reductions.

Although NDC basically focuses on targets to reduce GHGs emission within the specified time,Nepal's priority is on adaptation and NDC3 should give emphasis on adaptation targets as well to access additional funding to protect the lives and livelihoods of the climate vulnerable Nepali people.

Initially, few persons were engaged in supporting the government to draft NDCs. In 2025, MoFE has engaged multi-stakeholders with participation in four-digits to set perception-, need- and evidence-based targets and it has enhanced multi-institutional ownership over the NDC3. Multi-stakeholders should not limit themselves to define and set targets. They should equally participate in implementing the agreed targets more effectively to reduce GHGs emission, and/or build adaptive capacity and resilience of the climate vulnerable communities.

batu uprety111.jpg

Batu Uprety

Former Joint-Secretary and Chief of Climate Change Management Division, Ministry of Environment (then), and former Team Leader, National Adaptation Plan (NAP) formulation process. E-mail: upretybk@gmail.com

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