Politics has remained highly instable since long in Nepal governed by Oli, Deuba and Prachanda. The current dispensation, constituted as a result of late night agreement between Nepali Congress’s Deuba and UML’s Oli ostensibly to achieve political stability for growth, has seemingly failed to attain the goal set. Their then declaration that necessary amendments will be made soon to the constitution has become a laughing matter and must be embarrassing them now thattheir government is about to complete its twelve months. Growing number of people are seen taking to the streets of Kathmandu and elsewhere in the country, protesting misrule and wanting reinstatement of monarchy and Hindu religion. Corruption scandals involving heavyweight politicians are talked about and protested not only on the streets but also in the House. Finance minister Bishnu Poudyal barely got a chance to present the annual budget for the fiscal year (FY) 2025\26) on 29 May as provisioned in the constitution and the lawmakers thereafter stalled House proceedings demanding resignation of Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak accused of involvement in visit visa scandal, a scam in which the responsible immigration authorities are said to have been collecting millions of rupees every day from Nepalis leaving the country for employment outside. People believe that this money minting business has been continuing in this country since very long involving many ministers in charge of home affairs, but lekhak, who has done nothing new, has been unlucky enough to be accused by no other than dozens of lawmakers.

The country in recent times witnessed political convulsion emanating from the activities of pro-monarchists, which started with the unprecedented welcome accorded to king (ex) Gaynendra who was returning to Kathmandu from Pokhara. The huge welcome gathering not only encouraged the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), actively seeking restoration of monarchy since long, but also forced the otherwise silent king into responding to the call for his activation. Following this, the protest rally organized by royalists on 28 March 2025 turned violent and caused death of two innocent people including a journalist who was covering the protests in Tinkune of Kathmandu. Protest leaders and the government are still blaming each other for turning the protest violent, which caused death of people and destruction of properties.RPP Senior Vice President Rabindra Mishra and General Secretary Dhawal Samsher were arrested on state crime charges. They were freed after thorough investigation but Durga Prasi, the man said to have taken the lead in organizing the protest, is still languishing behind the bar. After the incident, the movement suffered a setback but it did not last long, unlike wished by those against the movement, which was amply demonstrated by increasing number of protesters in days ahead on streets in favor of monarchy and the religion (Hindu).Coming together on single platform of leaders like Rajendra Lingden, Keshar Bista, Kamal Thapa and Nava Raj Subedi and their pledge to jointly work to achieve the twin objective of restoration of monarchy and the religion, seems to have bolstered the confidence of people who are sick and tired of the way this country is ruled\ruined by our rulers. Irrespective of who among the monarchists leads the movement, the agitation is not likely to die down. In the midst of news that people are getting suspicious about the desire and ability of political leaders to genuinely push the movement ahead, some observers and analysts see the possibility of movement leadership being taken over by youths, with elderly politicians providing advisory inputs as and when demanded.

In addition to the monarchy-related movement that seems to have shaken the rulers, some other developments are also coming to the fore to show how badly Nepal has been governed in the last couple of decades. It may be noted that the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) has recently filed a corruption case against 93 individuals, including former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal. They have been accused of letting the Patanjali Yogpeeth and Ayurveda purchase land above ceiling and letting it dispose the land over time. Meanwhile, theCPN (United Socialist),of which Mr. Nepal is the Chair, has accused the government led by Oli of conspiring against the party and its leadership since long and the latest indictment of Nepal was another conspiracy hatched by Oli.Opinion of people is seen divided on this recent indictment involving a former head of government. Madhav Nepal is not considered one of the major rulers and is said to be less controversial. Many people feel that some other highly controversial leaders should have been charge sheeted prior to this action. At the same time, one can also easily come acrosspeople who feel that this action of the anti-graft body has opened the door for initiation of action against major rulers, too. Very disturbing incidents and the continuing noise both in the House and on the streets abundantly show that Nepal is still instable, politically. Nobody can say with certainty how long will this government stitched together by the Deubas will last.

Prominent leaders of NC like Gagan Thapa have begun to come down heavily on the government, accusing it of non-performance. Some NC leaders believe that their party has been discredited on account of inaction of the government. Influential NC leader Shekhar Koirala believes that the largest party in Parliament should make a move soon to lead the government. Without disagreeing much with him, people, however, would like to know who in NC would lead the next dispensation? May be Koirala is just impatient to see Deuba performing superbly in his sixth stint as prime minister of this country.Deuba, however, is said to have slowed down a bit after his trip to Bangkok(a major Southeast Asian city) towards the end of April where he is believed to have met influential and helping people from South Asia.Prachanda has also slowed down a bit lately, but he seems to be ready to join hands with anyone to oust Oli.Indeed, prominent rulers of this country are thinking day and night just about power politics, ignoring all other things including the ailing economy.

In the FY 2024\25 (2081\82), Nepal’s economy is expected to grow by anything between 4 percent (International Monetary Fund) and 4.61 percent (Nepal government). For the next FY, a budget with a total outlay of Rs.1964 billion has been made public, which is 5.38 percent bigger than the earlier budget of Rs.1860 billion. While 60 percent of the outlay has been allocated for recurrent expenditure, capital expenditure accounts for 20.8 percent and financial management explains 19 percent of the total budgeted expenditure. The budget wishes to achieve 6 percent growth and inflation is expected to remain at 5.5 percent. Finance Minister Poudyal is likely to face problems in organizing resources, including revenue collection target of Rs, 1315 billion, to meet the expenditure. In view of the pace of revenue collection thus far (only Rs.1015 billion in 11months), It may be difficult to meet even the revised revenue collection target of Rs.1267 billion. Flow of foreign grant has not been encouraging either. Considerable reliance, therefore, has been placed in the next budget on borrowing from internal source (Rs.362billion) and external source (Rs.233.66billion). On the expenditure front, unless given serious attention right from the beginning, government will have problem spending meaningfully Rs.400 billion kept under capital expenditure head. It is disappointing that in the 11 months of the current FY, only40 percent of the money allocated under this head has been spent. Without talking much about the budget in the current fluid situation, we can simply pray that Mr. Poudyal gets a chance to implement the budget written by him so that a moderate growth of around 5 percent could be achieved.

With different kinds of scams such as land scam, land donation scam, gold smuggling scam, Bhutanese refugee scam, and visit visa scam happening over time, one could be tempted to describe Nepal as a land of scams. Some have been arrested and punished but well identified political heavyweights linked to some scandals have remained untouched, much to the disappointment and frustration of commoners. This kind of inaction to save the culprits creates a situation where frustrated people attempt to take law in hand, which has been shown by the recent mistreatment by some individuals of judge Tharu of Birjung temporary bench of the High Court. Tharu is accused of unfairly acquitting Aftab Alam, a former NC lawmaker sentenced to life in prison by the District Court on charges of murder, overturning the verdict of the lower level court. Rulers of this country seem to be taking pride in the fact that nothing against their wish can happen here, probably not realizing how seriously their activities are fueling unrest. Unrest, be it related to monarchy or the religion, is likely to continue with ever increasing number of unemployed youths desperate to vent their frustration. In days ahead, rival rallies for and against major issues such as monarchy, religion and federalism are likely to be seen in increasing number in Kathmandu and elsewhere in the country. Irrespective of the level and genuineness of inputs coming from leaders like Rajendra Lingden, Kamal Thapa, etc., pro-monarchy movement is likely to gain momentum and continue with increasing participation of youths. It could take the shape of Bangladeshi movement where no political party was seen involved, let alone taking the lead. One thing to be noted by our rulers is that it will be very difficult to brush aside this issue as increasing number of people are seen sympathetic to king (ex)Gyanendra who has of late begun to lend an ear to people’s urging. The monarch must also be happy that he has now an educated grandson (HirdayendraShah) with an untarnished image ready to get into his shoes as and when required. Peoplealso believe that his soberness, intellect and desire to stay away from controversy will go a long wayin mending the cracks that the institution (monarchy) is said to have suffered on account of Paras (ex crown prince) during his hay days. Situation is undoubtedly disturbing, which can be normalized if Deuba and Oli open the door for the creation of an interim government, consisting of honest people, that can be charged with the responsibility of rewriting the constitution, arresting deterioration of the economy, ruthlessly handling corruption and organizing elections under the redone constitution. This is how the much-desired peaceful change can happen in this country saved so far by Lord Pashupatinath.

Dr. Rawal is a former governor of Nepal Rastra Bank