Apprehended serious disruption in Chinese supply chain could push up currently depressed global inflation level. Let us hope the current level of inflation in Nepal (6.4 percent) does not gallop and pray that Lord Pashupatinath protects us from the current virus as we were saved in 2003 from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), originating in China, which spread to scores of countries in Asia but Nepal.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Feb 23, 2020
Current account deficit has also declined from Rs. 35.16 billion in two months of last fiscal year to Rs.21.79 billion this year. Similarly, BOP has remained positive by Rs. 8.83 billion in sixty days of this fiscal year, which was negative by Rs. 25.45 billion in the corresponding period of last fiscal year.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Nov 13, 2019
There are problems all over the world and we need not panic looking at our problems, if we have the determination to confront problems honestly. A confession that our economy is in a bad shape, by those at the helm of affairs, should be the starting point. Confession should not be difficult to come by when one remembers how bad was the situation last fiscal year when trade deficit increased in an unprecedented manner, BOP remained negative throughout the year, capital expenditure took a nose dive, foreign exchange reserve showed depletion, FDI decreased and revenue target had to be changed time and again. Mere professing about growth and prosperity is not going to help because it is difficult to see which sector of the economy is emerging as an increasingly powerful growth engine to fulfill the proclaimed 11 percent growth.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Sep 08, 2019
Trump has imposed fresh sanctions on Iran and threatened it of total obliteration. We can simply pray that things do not go much beyond the US retaliatory cyber-attack against Iranian missile control system so that situation does not seriously deteriorate in the Middle East\Gulf, which could further complicate matters in Nepal with depleting foreign exchange reserve and alarming trade and current account deficit. Internally, late and inadequate monsoonal rains, projected to be 30 percent less this year, and reported shortage of chemical fertilizers may negatively affect paddy output, a major contributor to Nepal’s gross domestic product. May Lord Pashupatinath continue to save this nation and its people?
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Jun 30, 2019
In the midst of these hiccups, government is expected to proceed with the annual works in a ritualistic fashion. Lots of crumbs spreading is likely to be seen in the budget, which is certain to be distributive\populist as there is tremendous demand coming from politicians for inclusion of populist programmes.Growth has to be achieved first then comes the question of who gets it, let us not forget. May the writers of the budget not forget that an opportunity for stable growth backed by strong domestic demand is in the offing?
By Dr. Tilak Rawal May 21, 2019
Our Prime Minister would do well by stopping himself and his colleagues from painting a rosy picture of the economy at a time when trade imbalance is on the rise, balance of payment is negative, current account is in deficit, foreign exchange reserve is decreasing and foreign investment has registered a sharp decline. Opposition leaders should also not be too hard on Oli because the mess that the economy is in today cannot be solely blamed on the still- young government led by him
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Jan 26, 2019
Together with currency depreciation, rising fuel prices have already begun to hurt the people of this import based nation which imports its entire fossil fuel requirement from outside. Looks like days ahead are going to be all the more difficult because in addition to reduction in supply of Iranian oil, Saudi Arabia wants crude output to decline by one million barrel a day.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Nov 23, 2018
The concerned authorities have also stated that country’s GDP will be taken to a two- digit level within three years. After achieving 8 percent growth this year, the economy will grow by 9.1 percent next year and a year thereafter it will hit 9.5 percent. During this period of three years, agriculture sector is expected to grow by 6.6 percent and non-farm sector is hoped to grow by 10.7 percent.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Sep 22, 2018
It is a big disappointment that, contrary to the information provided by the Ministry of Finance, revenue collection suffered a setback, which had been exceeding the target each year in the last decade. It may be noted that the ministry had stated in a press conference that revenue collection last year had exceeded the target by Rs. 2 billion to reach Rs.732 billion but data made available by Nepal Rastra Bank and the Financial Comptroller General Office show that revenue collection in the year was only Rs. 726 billion, clearly showing that it fell sort of target for the first time in a decade. It would be unfair to put the entire blame for the debacle on the current dispensation because most parts of the last fiscal year, Oli and Khatiwada were not managing state affairs but they definitely owe public an apology for the misleading information formally provided in a press conference organized by the ministry soon after the annual closing.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Aug 18, 2018
Thanks God at least pitiable conditions of roads in the Valley have finally attracted the attention of our Prime Minister who has instructed the concerned minister and authorities to correct the road conditions immediately. People may be remembering that his predecessor Deuba, just some days after assuming power, had also instructed the authorities to fill up ditches and improve the road condition within 15 days. The only difference between the two instructions is that while Deuba issued his order with a distinct timeline, Oli’s instructions this time around do not contain a quantifiable time frame. Very appropriately, therefore, people have begun to find recurrence of meaningless instructions of our top leaders in power laughable.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Jul 21, 2018
It is also difficult to find anything solid in the budget, which could at least lay in the first year the much needed foundation for doubling agricultural output in 5 five years. Funds have been allocated under different heads to subsidize agriculture as in the past but the bitter reality is that the money set aside mostly remained unspent, with the exception of subsidy on chemical fertilizers and insurance.Further,it is difficult to believe that announcing support prices of crops like paddy,wheat,sugarcane,etc would help increase production and productivity when people are aware of the bitter reality that the country lacks a financially and technically sound institution to carry out primary procurement of farm output.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Jun 15, 2018
A mid-way involving concession from both sides will have to be worked out if the idea is to save the party from further degradation. Deuba will have to appreciate the demand of the changing time, while those wishing to see him out at the earliest should not forget that he is the strongman of the party till date and can afford to take negative remarks about him as nothing more than tantrums of the disgruntled leaders.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal May 03, 2018
Let us hope Oli succeeds in persuading the concerned in Indian to expedite work in a meaningful way on the much delayed Pancheswor (Mahakali) project and hopefully finds India serious in completing Arun 111 hydro project (costing 1.4 billion dollar) in the stipulated time of 5 years because friends of India here would like to believe that their neighbor on the south delivers what it promises, maintaining a timeline.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Apr 06, 2018
All said and done, it is difficult to disagree with people who think that compared to these decisions related to increases in allowances and nomination, his earlier decision pertaining to the appointment of governors, which was a must and was taken after rounds of consultation with other political parties, was timely and appropriate.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Mar 04, 2018
Deuba must have thought that these kind of populist measures would make some political capital for NC and that UMl,which has historically remained at the forefront of making populist announcements, would not be in a position to oppose the decisions publicly, fearingpublic backlash.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Feb 04, 2018
According to data made public, the inflow of remittance dropped by 1.4 percent in the first four months of the current fiscal year. Remittance inflow in these four months stood at Rs. 228.95 billion, while in the corresponding period of last fiscal year it was Rs.232.1 billion
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Jan 07, 2018
Let us also note that by 2030 Chinese economy will swell to 38 trillion dollar from its current level of 19.4 trillion dollar to become the largest economy in the world, while Indian economy (currently 2.4 trillion dollar) will hit 19 trillion dollar to be at number 3.
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Dec 08, 2017
When approached by a curious President Bidhya Devi before administering oath to the new ministers, 8 from the RPP led by Kamal Thapa, EC told the President that although Cabinet expansion was against the code of conduct, the move will not affect the planned elections
By Dr. Tilak Rawal Nov 10, 2017