If the statement of leader of Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party Narayan Man Bijukchhe is any indication, Nepal is heading towards a big political turmoil with KP Sharma Oli led faction on the one side and the rest on the other, with Nepali Congress.
Bijukchhe, a radical communist of Bhaktapur, issued a warning that prime minister Oli will go for the dissolution of Legislature Parliament in case CPN-Maoist-Center quit from the government.
“There are no constitutional options of this government. If efforts are made to dislodge the government, Prime Minister Oli can use his weapon to dissolve the house and call for fresh elections,” said MP Bijukchhe. “It is in the interest of Maoist Center and Nepal not to play with fire.”
In case of the dissolution move by Oli, there will be a test case about the capability of president Bidhya Bhandari, who is reportedly close to prime minister Oli. As there are some ambiguities in the provisions of the constitution on dissolution order, one cannot rule out the possibility of House dissolution.
This warning came when CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda demanded with prime minister Oli to fulfill his gentlemen's agreement. “After the passing of budget, prime minister Oli has to pave the way for a national consensus government,” said CPN-Maoist Center leader Prachanda.
However, prime minister Oli’s close aide said that nothing like such gentleman's agreement has been made with Maoist leader Prachanda. “We have not heard about any threat. This government will continue till holding the local, provincial and central elections,” Bishnu Rimal, Prime minister Oli’s advisor, told New Spotlight.
As Bijukchhe issued the statement, a group of constitutional lawyers close to Oli is floating the idea that the prime minister can dissolve the House to seek a fresh mandate from the people. After the completion of hearing and appointment of new judges, majority of judges in the Supreme Court will be leaning to Oli. The possibility of dissolution is very high, expecting that even the court can endorse the move.
If the politics moves to this direction, there will be clear polarization in politics with CPN-UML led faction and rest of opposition including Nepali Congress, CPN-Maoist center and Madheshi front who will go for a nationwide strike and demonstration.
As more dispute is brewing, Nepal’s political scenario is heading towards an uncertain course. Once the CPN-Maoist Center pulls out its support, which is likely given the pressure they are putting, Prime Minister Oli has a few options, either tender a resignation or go for a vote.
Instead of facing humiliation by tendering resignation, prime minister Oli, who is very cruel in politics, can go for a dissolution, facing possible political consequences.
Maoist leader Prachanda has said that any political leader who can form the national government is acceptable to his party. “There is a specific person in my mind. What I want is a national government which can implement the constitution and solve the crisis of Madhesh,” said Prachanda.
In a situation when Nepali Congress cannot support Oli and CPN-UML cannot support Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, Maoist leader Prachanda considers himself as a natural contender for prime minister.
Whether Oli remains in the post or Prachanda becomes the prime minister, it is almost certain that Nepal will be see continuing instability. Leaders can take some safe journey in case they avoid confrontation. If Bijjukchhe's speculations turn true, there will be another upheaval that will be a costly political drama in Nepal.