The Arabian Sea is hosting favorable conditions for pushing the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala, a little before time. A trough is marked over the Lakshadweep region and Southeast Arabian Sea and a cyclonic circulation is expected over the area in the next 24 hours. Rapidly, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region on 30th and possibly a well-marked low pressure or depression in the subsequent 24 hours.
These features will be responsible for before time onset of monsoon over Kerala on 30th May. The vortex of upcoming ‘low’ is going to shift along the west coast, though remaining in the Arabian Sea and extend the rainfall activity across Coastal Karnataka & Konkan-Goa. Mumbai also will early showers anytime after 31st May. Monsoon clouds are already hovering around the Kerala coast and are threatening heavy rain/ thundershowers commencing 30th May and persisting for the subsequent 72hr. The opening spell of monsoon for Kerala has increased the probability of flooding, particularly over the northern parts of the state.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) may take a leap along the West Coast but likely to be sluggish along the East Coast and parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. The rains over Konkan and Goa in association with Depression in the Arabian Sea will amount to pre-monsoon showers. We await another system to push the Monsoon to Mumbai and suburbs.
Source: Skymet Weather